By Andy Sullivan
WASHINGTON, Sept 7 (Reuters) – Democrats need to pick up four seats from Republicans to win control of the 100-seat Senate in the midterm elections on November 3. While voters will pick candidates in 35 states, independent analysts only see nine of those races as competitive.
NORTH CAROLINA
Democrats have a good chance to pick up a seat in North Carolina, where incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring.
Opinion polls show former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper holding a steady lead over Republican operative Michael Whatley, an ally of Republican President Donald Trump who most recently chaired the Republican National Committee.
Cooper is well known to North Carolina voters, having won four races as state attorney general and two more as governor in 2016 and 2020, even as Trump carried the state in those years.
Whatley also has decades of experience in politics but has not previously run for office, and his close ties to Trump could work against him at a time when the president’s approval rating stands at 33%, the lowest of his political career, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.
MICHIGAN
Democrats are playing defense in Michigan, where they hope to retain the seat held by retiring Senator Gary Peters. A loss in this closely contested state would complicate their efforts to win control of the chamber.
Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive, faces lingering skepticism as he tries to consolidate support after narrowly defeating centrist Representative Haley Stevens in a bitter primary. The former health official’s criticism of Israel and association with left-wing streamer Hasan Piker galvanized the party’s left flank but alienated many of the state’s Black and Jewish voters.
He faces Republican Mike Rogers, a former House member who lost a Senate race in 2024.
Polls show a close race, and nonpartisan analysts rate it a toss-up, saying El-Sayed’s left-wing candidacy could give Rogers a greater opportunity to win independent voters.
TEXAS
This Republican-dominated state has emerged as a surprise battleground this year. Polls show a close race between Democrat James Talarico, a state representative and former seminary student, and Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general.
Despite allegations of marital infidelity that nearly forced him from office in 2023, Paxton unseated incumbent Senator John Cornyn with Trump’s backing in a divisive primary. Since then, he has struggled to raise money — forcing his party to spend money shoring up what would normally be considered a safe seat.
Talarico has sought to win over independents and disaffected Republicans, but his past comments about gender identity could be a liability. Still, analysts see this race as a toss-up.
ALASKA
Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan faces two liabilities in his reelection campaign: a credible challenge from a Democrat and another person on the ballot with the same name.
Democrat Mary Peltola previously held the state’s sole House seat for a single term and has campaigned as a centrist. She garnered 82,000 votes to Sullivan’s 69,000 in the state’s nonpartisan primary in August, in what could be an ominous sign for the incumbent.
Sullivan also will have to contend with another Republican, retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan, who got enough votes to advance to the November election despite Republican attempts to knock him off the ballot.
Peltola could also benefit from the state’s ranked-choice voting system, which takes voters’ second choices into account.
Polling has been sparse in this race, but analysts see it as a toss-up.
IOWA
After a decade of Republican dominance, Iowa is home to competitive races this year, as the farm state struggles with Trump’s tariffs and high fuel prices.
Representative Ashley Hinson aims to keep the seat in Republican hands following the retirement of incumbent Senator Joni Ernst.
She faces state representative Josh Turek, a former Paralympic basketball player who has emphasized his bipartisan work in the state legislature.
Polls show a close race, and analysts say it should be one of the most competitive contests this fall.
MAINE
Democrats scrambled in July to find a replacement for Graham Platner, the progressive oyster farmer and political newcomer who dropped out after facing accusations of sexual assault, which he denied. The party quickly coalesced around Troy Jackson, a former lumberjack and state legislator who shares Platner’s progressive politics.
Jackson, 58, takes on incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins, a moderate who occasionally breaks with her party. First elected in 1996, Collins has won reelection easily even as the northeastern state has consistently backed Democratic presidential candidates.
Recent polls have shown Jackson holding a three- to four-percentage-point lead.
GEORGIA
Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is running for reelection against Republican Representative Mike Collins, a conservative backed by Trump.
Georgia has emerged as a top battleground state in recent elections. Trump narrowly won the state in the 2024 presidential election, while Ossoff, 39, narrowly won his seat in a 2021 runoff. Analysts see him as a possible 2028 presidential candidate.
Collins has cultivated an edgy social-media persona that has occasionally backfired, as in 2024, when he faced criticism for suggesting Democratic President Joe Biden directed an assassination attempt on Trump. In recent weeks, he has been under scrutiny for racist posts by a former aide, which his campaign has disavowed.
Most polls have shown Ossoff leading Collins, and nonpartisan analysts say he holds the advantage in this race.
OHIO
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is hoping voters in Ohio remember his long record of economic populism as he tries to win back his old job.
First elected in 2006, Brown was defeated by Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024, a year when Trump won the once-competitive state by 11 percentage points.
He is now trying to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat in 2025 after then-Senator JD Vance resigned to serve as Trump’s vice president. Husted previously served as lieutenant governor and secretary of state.
Ohio has trended steadily Republican over the past decade, but recent polls show Brown leading Husted by three to four percentage points and analysts view the race as a toss-up.
The winner of this race will serve the remainder of Vance’s term, through January 2029.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
New Hampshire holds its primary election on September 8 in the contest to fill retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s seat. Republicans are expected to nominate John Sununu, who previously served in the Senate from 2003 to 2009, while Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is leading the Democratic field. Nonpartisan analysts say Democrats are favored in this contest.
(Reporting by Andy SullivanEditing by Rod Nickel)
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