BERLIN, Dec 19 (Reuters) – Sentiment among German consumers is set to fall significantly heading into 2026 as households’ propensity to save money, driven by renewed uncertainty, reached its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, a survey showed on Friday.
The consumer sentiment index, published by the GfK market research institute and Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), fell to -26.9 points in January from a slightly downwardly revised -23.4 points. That is below the forecast from analysts polled by Reuters for a reading of -23.2 points.
Notably, the propensity to save climbed to its highest level since June 2008, said NIM consumer climate head Rolf Buerkl, as households are again fearful of higher inflation and left uncertain by political discussions on the future of pensions.
A rebellion within German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives this month left open until the very last minute whether a pensions bill would make it over the line.
A “disappointing” end to this year, with both income expectations and households’ propensity to buy declining, also helped lead to the fall in the overall sentiment index, it said.
“This is not good news for the final sprint in this year’s Christmas business and can also be seen as a false start for consumer climate in 2026,” said Buerkl in a statement.
Germany’s economy is expected to grow by only 0.2% in 2025 after two years of contraction as Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s spending measures need time to translate into better conditions.
JAN DEC JAN
2026 2025 2025
Consumer climate -26.9 -23.4 -21.4
Consumer climate components
DEC NOV DEC
2025 2025 2024
– economic expectations 1.2 -1.1 0.3
– income expectations -6.9 -0.1 1.4
– willingness to buy -7.5 -6.0 -5.4
– willingness to save 18.7 13.7 5.9
The survey period was from December 4-15, 2025.
An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop compared with the same period a year earlier.
According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1% in private consumption.
The “willingness to buy” indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: “Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?”
The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months.
The economic expectations index reflects respondents’ assessment of the general economic situation over the next 12 months.
($1 = 0.8618 euros)
(Reporting by Miranda MurrayEditing by Madeline Chambers)
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