QUITO (Reuters) – Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa looks set to win a full four-year term in the Feb. 9 election, likely after a runoff contest against leftist Luisa Gonzalez, several polls show.
A runoff between Noboa and Gonzalez would be a repeat of the 2023 election, when Gonzalez led a first round but eventually lost to Noboa, a business scion.
Noboa, 37, would win 47.1% of valid votes, not including blank or void votes, compared to 39.5% for Gonzalez, according to pollster Comunicaliza in a Jan. 25 survey. The online survey of 5,217 respondents has a margin of error of 1.36%.
To win in a first round, a candidate must either get more than 50% of valid votes or win at least 40% while being 10 points ahead of their nearest rival.
An Ipsos poll shows Noboa winning outright in a first round, getting 50% of valid votes compared to 34.6% for Gonzalez. That survey had 2,000 respondents, a margin of error of 2.2% and was conducted from Jan. 20-24.
“We are on the point of burying the mafias forever, of burying those who have stolen our dreams and put the brakes on progress in the country,” Noboa said on social media on Wednesday night, in a post showing three surveys with him in the lead.
Another poll, by Negocios & Estrategias, puts Gonzalez in first place, with 45% of valid votes compared to 40% for Noboa, leading to a second round. That survey, conducted with 2,000 people from Jan. 23-25, had a margin of error of 2.2%.
Opinion polls in Ecuador have been “remarkably unreliable” in recent years, Tellimer Insights said in a note, warning investors not to lower their guard.
“Our base case remains a Noboa win, though that’s far from assured in our view. If anything, considering the outperformance of Ecuadorean bonds over the last month and a half, we believe the market might have grown a tad complacent, and is putting too much faith in opinion polls,” Tellimer said.
Tellimer said its base case scenario is a Noboa lead in the first round, though without enough margin to avoid a runoff.
(Reporting by Alexandra Valencia in Quito, additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York; Writing by Julia Symmes Cobb; Editing by Rod Nickel)
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